QUEST FOR DATA TO ANALYSE THE CURRENT COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Social Distancing of Symptomatic Cases within Households
as A Non-pharmaceutical Intervention
The world is gripped by the COVID-19 pandemic. An infected person, or index case, is likely to infect other people in their vicinity. Social distancing is touted as one of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions to minimize risk of infection. Current guidelines on nonpharmaceutical interventions advice symptomatic cases to stay in home isolation for 7-14 days. The question is whether this guideline puts their family members at increased risk.
It is vital to analyse the current pandemic to explore whether social distancing of symptomatic cases within households can minimize morbidity and mortality
The hypothesis is that secondary cases suffer more morbidity and mortality, because of higher and repeated infection load
Do (secondary) cases with COVID-19 infection from larger households suffer higher morbidity and mortality than index cases?
Proposal for Data Analysis
Here we are starting an initiative to:
- Collect aggregated statistics on case finding and households in specific regions e.g. regions in Italy, Brabant in the Netherlands, China, etc.;
- Calculate relative risks of morbidity and mortality;
- Estimate primary and secondary attack rates;
- Follow up of clinical cases for hospitalization, intensive care including use of respirator, and mortality;
Guidelines on home isolation of symptomatic cases as a non-pharmaceutical intervention need to be adapted
Update 22 March 2020
Rudi Westendorp, Thorkild Sørensen, Peter Aaby.
Dept Public Health, University of Copenhagen