(in Danish below) The world’s oldest living human turned 119 in January. It’s a woman, and she’s from Japan. Although it is only a matter of three more years, she has only a 20% chance of living longer than the world’s oldest person ever, the French woman Jeanne Calment, who reached 122, according to statistician and probability theorist Anders Stockmarr from the Technical University of Denmark.
“In fact, there is less than a 50% chance that someone will surpass Calment and outlive her by 2045,” he explains. Together with other researchers, he published a scientific paper earlier this year on the human lifetime record and when the record is likely to be broken.
According to the researchers’ article ‘The Human Longevity Record May Hold for Decades: Jeanne Calment’s Extraordinary Record Is Not Evidence for an Upper Limit to Human Lifespan’, they delved into the so-called Young list with all the people in the world, who have been validated to have lived to 110, also known as super-centenarians.
“She actually gave up cigarettes when she was 117, but then she started again when she was 118”
Anders Stockmarr
“Many people don’t remember correctly about how old they are when they get really old. A character from the Danish tv-series Matador thought she was 100, when she was only 90. It’s the same in the real world. That’s why we have age-detectors who verify their age, and the Young list therefore has reliable data,” explains Anders Stockmarr.
The article contines after the picture….
He says that Jeanne Calment, who died in 1997, was a very special and rare person. She was a woman, and women grow oldest. The ten oldest people, who have ever lived, are women. She had good genes with a father who lived to 94 and a brother who lived to 97. She had a rich husband and did not work, but was active, taking up fencing at 85, for example, and she was cycling, until she was over 100. Her diet was Mediterranean food, which is considered particularly healthy with lots of olive oil and garlic, she lived stress-free and laughed a lot. Moreover, she did not suffer from dementia but was sane to the end, which of course increases one’s zest for life. On the other hand, she did eat a kilo of chocolate a week and smoked cigarettes.
“She actually gave up cigarettes when she was 117, but then she started again when she was 118,” says Stockmarr, who stresses that there is no guarantee that smoking cigarettes will kill you, although doctors say it can be one of the key factors shortening your life.
Humans become more and more fragile with age. But when you reach 110, you reach maximum frailty. Then it doesn’t get worse, Stockmarr says, stressing that it’s a theory, he’s talking average numbers and that after 110, every year there’s a 50% risk of dying.
(only in Danish) Evigt Liv – 28.4.2022 afholder Challenge Platformen en konference på Københavns Universitets Festsal om forskning i sunde og lange liv, om hvordan vi kan blive ved med at reparere os selv, og hvordan nogen tror på evigt liv. Læs mere her.
“Up until 1970, there weren’t really any super-centenarians in the world. If you then go back 110 years to 1860, that was the time after the industrial revolution, which also revolutionised people’s standard of living. That’s probably why more people born after that time become super-centenarians…” he explains.
Scientists’ probability calculations cannot be used to predict the life expectancy of a single individual, as individual predictions require a focus on individual frailty.
Currently, Anders Stockmarr is looking at our chronic diseases to provide opportunities to improve Danes’ quality of life, as well as calculating future strain on the hospital system, as we get older and older and there will be more sick people. But he would like to look more at age. Or rather:
“I would like to look at death. Death is super interesting. Young people get influence when the older loose power. It would be interesting to look at the balance of powe. Do the powerful get older, or are they replaced earlier?” he asks.
Verdensrekorden i levetid bliver ikke slået foreløbig
Verdens ældste nulevende menneske blev 119 år i januar. Det er en kvinde, og hun kommer fra Japan. Selv om det kun er et spørgsmål om endnu tre år, har hun kun 20% chance for at leve længere end verdens ældste person, den franske kvinde, Jeanne Calment, der blev 122 år. Det siger statistiker og sandsynlighedsteoretiker Anders Stockmarr fra Danmarks Tekniske Universitet.
“Faktisk er der mindre end 50% chance for at nogen vil overhale Calment og blive ældre end hende inden 2045,” forklarer han. Sammen med andre forskere, bl.a. indenfor aldring, udgav han tidligere på året en videnskabelig artikel om den menneskelige levetidsrekord, og hvornår rekorden sandsynligvis bliver slået.
Ifølge forskernes artikel ‘The Human Longevity Record May Hold for Decades: Jeanne Calment’s Extraordinary Record Is Not Evidence for an Upper Limit to Human Lifespan’ dykkede de ned i den såkaldte Young liste, som er alle de mennesker i verden, der er blevet valideret til at være blevet 110, også kaldet super-centenarians.
“Mange mennesker husker ikke korrekt om, hvor gamle de er, når de bliver rigtig gamle. Tante Møhge fra Matador troede hun blev 100, da hun kun var 90. Sådan er det også i den virkelige verden. Derfor har vi alders-detektiver, der verificerer deres alder, og Young listen har derfor pålidelige data,” forklarer Anders Stockmarr.
Han fortæller, at Jeanne Calment, der døde i 1997, var et helt specielt og sjældent menneske. Hun var kvinde, og kvinder bliver ældst. De ti ældste personer der har levet er kvinder. Hun havde gode gener med en far, der blev 94 og en bror, der blev 97. Hun havde en rig mand og arbejdede ikke, men var aktiv og begyndte f.eks. at fægte som 85-årig, og hun cyklede til hun var over 100. Hun spiste middelhavsmad, som anses for særligt sundt med masser af olivenolie og hvidløg, hun har levet stressfrit og grinet meget. Desuden blev hun ikke dement men var hun åndsfrisk til det sidste, hvilket jo øger ens livslyst. Til gengæld spiste hun faktisk et kilo chokolade om ugen, og så røg hun cigaretter.
“Hun droppede faktisk cigaretterne, da hun blev 117, men så begyndte hun igen, da hun blev 118,” fortæller Stockmarr, der understreger, at der jo ikke er nogen garanti for, at man dør af at ryge cigaretter, selv om det ifølge læger kan være en af de helt afgørende faktorer, hvis man vil forkorte sit liv.
Mennesker bliver mere og mere skrøbelige med alderen. Men når man når 110 år, så når man max skrøbelighed. Så bliver det ikke værre, siger Stockmarr og understreger, at det er en teori, det er gennemsnitlige tal og at efter de 110, så er der hvert år 50% risiko for at dø.
“Op til 1970 var der ikke rigtig nogen super-centenarians i verden. Hvis du så går 110 år tilbage til 1860, så var det tiden efter den industrielle revolution, som også revolutionerede folks levestandard. Derfor er der formentlig flere der er født efter denne tid som bliver super-centenarians…” forklarer han.
Forskernes sandsynlighedsberegninger kan ikke bruges til at forudsige et enkelt individs levealder, da individuelle forudsigelser kræver fokus på den individuelle skrøbelighed.
For tiden kigger Anders Stockmarr på vores kroniske sygdomme for at give mulighed for at forbedre danskernes livskvalitet samt beregne fremtidig belastning på sygehusvæsenet i og med, at vi bliver ældre og ældre og der vil være flere syge. Men han vil gerne se mere på alder. Eller rettere:
“Jeg ville gerne kigge på døden. Døden er superinteressant. Ungdommen får jo indflydelse ved, at magthaverne falder fra. Det kunne være interessant at se på magtforholdene, på aldersfordeling blandt magthavere. Bliver de magtfulde tilsvarende ældre, eller bliver de udskiftet tidligere?” spørger han.
